NHAR President-Elect John Rice was one of 39 New Hampshire attendees at the National Association of REALTORS Midyear Legislative Meetings, held May 9-14 in Washington, D.C., and he filed this report:

NHAR President-Elect’s Notes from NAR Legislative Meetings

1. Monday May 9 Attended NAR’s new 3- hour each Leadership courses “Leadership 200 Becoming a Leader” and “Leadership 300 Enhancing Leadership Skills.” Both were fast-paced and interesting. Class consisted of AE’s, State Presidents and President’s Elects…Many worthwhile ideas that take the NHAR Leadership Course to the next level. Roger Turcotte was one of the instructors.

2. Tuesday, May 10….Legislative and Political Forum with Obama Administration’s David Axelrod, Fox-TV News analyst and former George Bush Press Secretary Dana Perrino and former US Senator Judd Gregg (R-NH). Axelrod called REALTOR’s the “Midwives of the American Dream.” He predicted a robust Presidential debate, while crediting Obama with making tough, unpopular decisions, as well as being focused and calm during the Bin Laden capture. Perrino suggested that you can’t have an economic recovery without a housing recovery and regulations are stifling it. Axelrod was vague on the administration’s homeownership plans after the stimulus package.  No one predicted the immediate demise of FANNIE and FREDDIE. As for the MID, it’s not going away soon, but economic sacrifice should be shared equally and the middle class needs to kept strong and vibrant. Dana said neither party wants anyone to suffer, but we have different ways of getting to the same goal.  But we can’t make abrupt shifts that pull the rug out from under the housing industry. Dana said NAR is amazingly powerful. We represent communities and Congressmen like that….Judd Gregg was as animated as anyone has ever seen him. He says we are facing bankruptcy in four to five years unless we get real leadership on tough issues. Every second another $56,000 is added to the Federal debt. Health care and a demographic shift as it pertains to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security are the culprits. His solution: reduce discretionary spending, freeze COLAs, and make Social Security solvent, reform health care, tax laws and energy policies.

3. Symposium on Mortgage Liquidity May 10. Key to economic recovery is job market. Banks are comfortable with current credit quality. FANNIE/FREDDIE are some kind of government entity is needed to protect long-term borrowing. In point of fact, since the depression, private sector lending was only dominant in the early 2000’s—and look at the mess it got us into. The 20% down payment idea is lunacy. FICO reviews need to be rational. The emphasis may be turning to rentals, but with rents, the American dream of homeownership should/will be revived. But a comprehensive rental/ownership mix is not a bad thing. Appraisers need to use common sense. One size does not fit all. They need to know their community…Main reason for short sale delays (for which no one had any really good answers) is that there are so many people involved.

4. Small Board Forum, May 10. Lots of good ideas. One that stood-out from North Dakota was a state-wide REALTOR day of Salvation Army bell ringing…They also do a weekly 60-second pod cast…Maine touted its state-wide spring “Clearance Sale” that got good PR and led to 19 sales. Iowa held an RPAC road rally that sounded kind of neat and new…Nebraska held a “REALTORS got Talent” night for RPAC at its annual convention…DC REALTORS are pushing to have the District be represented in Congress.

5. Hill Visits…We were unable to meet directly with Kelly Ayotte, who was at a meeting at the White House. Giunta and Shaheen made cameo appearances due to votes and other obligations. Bass spent quite a bit of time with us. In the interim, we discussed the NAR talking points with their legislative assistants. Of these, Ayotte’s and Shaheen’s offices seemed to be most engaged. Bass was the least empathetic in opposing MID, extending GSE and the Short Sale initiatives. Everyone agreed that there would be no immediate action on MID for at least two years…More than 20 of us made the trek to the Hill on the 11^th and 12^th.

6. Lawrence Yun…There has been little change in level of annual sales in last three years. There was volatility on a month to month basis due to tax credit…He predicts a modest (4%) increase for the year…Rising rents are squeezing consumers and this is a good thing for the home-buying market. International and so-called “smart money” buyers are chasing real estate…The job market is a huge key to recovery. Alaska, DC, North Dakota and Texas are fully recovered and booming, while there is no recovery in Middle America….Home prices are stabilizing but distressed sales still account for 30 to 40% of all transactions…Delinquencies remain high but trending down…Dollar very weak…Housing starts are at historic lows…High end market is beginning to move…In Summary:

Upside Potential: Mortgage underwriting can’t get any tighter in fact and should go back to “normal” which will create 20% more sales. This has not happened yet, however.

Downside Potential: Republican attack on Middle Class (20% down payments for example) Democrat attacks on wealthy (could hurt second home mortgages.) US Savings rate is 6% (in China, for example, its 40%)…Would take average buyer 14 years to save up a 20% down payment.

Economic Hurdles: Gas, oil, grocery prices; unemployment; the deficit, consumer confidence.

Forecast: Mortgage rates will rise, no housing values change, sales up 7%

7. State Presidents/Presidents-Elect Forum. …Various interesting initiatives discussed. New York is advocating a 2% property tax cap and has launched a campaign. NY has the highest closing costs in the US…Michigan sponsored a neighborhood cleanup day…New Jersey stopped legislation that would have enabled communities to levy their own local home sales tax. Their “Real Story” campaign motivates financially capable buyers and sellers to learn more about the NJ market, emphasizing the importance of working with a REALTOR. They held a spring, state-wide open-house…Rhode Island and Florida REALTORS have quite elaborate “Homeownership Matters” campaigns. Florida, among other things seeks to reduce property tax assessments, contain cost drivers that weaken the market for insurers and policyholders and repeal the statewide mandated septic tank inspection program. North Carolina has a thorough plan to fight the proposed elimination of the Mortgage Interest Deduction. Indiana has a balanced budget, school vouchers and provides citizens with tax rebates if the state collects more than it needs. State pays for schools—not property taxes. The IAR has been pushing these things. Similarly, Oklahoma is pushing a “Quality of Life” campaign based on five points: Homeownership, jobs, sound infrastructure, ability to buy and sell and environmental sustainability. California with its 162,000 members imposed a $49 dues increase as an RPAC “fair share”…

8. Board of Directors meeting May 14. New Hampshire had the early spot light as Angie Kopka delivered a very nice Invocation….The expected controversy over the REALTOR Political Survival Initiative never materialized. Voice votes were overwhelmingly in support of both the initiative and the $40 dues increase to fund it. There was literally no debate.

Respectfully submitted,

John W. Rice

2011 NHAR President-elect

Dave Education, Leadership, REALTOR Association Midyear, NAR, Realtors